Thursday, January 5, 2012

The descriptive v. the normative in MMT as a macro theory



Distinguishing the descriptive (positive) from the prescriptive (normative) in MMT is theory-dependent. A theory is a generalized explanation that leads to predictions based on putative causation. Testing predictions formulated as hypotheses is the experimental aspect of the theory and it is part of the descriptive (positive) aspect, i.e., tests causal claims.

A scientific theory contains causal explanations that enable predictions. (There is a huge literature in the philosophy of science about nature of causality and its use as a theoretical tool.) This predictive capacity underlies the application of theory in engineering and technology. Broadly speaking, applied macro includes its application to formulating policy options. This application macro may result in a range of policy options. Options can be judged based on efficiency and effectiveness.

According Peter R. Drucker in The Effective Executive, efficiency is "doing things right,"  and effectiveness is "doing the right things." Assessing efficiency is a scientific (positive) concern, and the criteria for "doing things right' are generally clear and agreed upon.

Correctness wrt to effectiveness is based on the goals chosen. This is where the prescriptive (normative) enters. Economics does not supply policy objectives, which are a political matter, decided by representatives elected by citizens in a liberal democracy. Economists can only inform those responsible for governing about economic possibilities of various policy options.

The JG is part and parcel of the theoretical aspect of MMT as a macro theory that addresses reconciling the big three: production, employment and price. This is not a choice. Any macro theory that expects to seem credible in the currency academic universe of discourse has set these are priorities.

Take the JG out as a price anchor in addition to an employment buffer, and you don't have MMT as the macro theory it is. As Warren Mosler has said, the JG can be eliminated in making policy decisions, but don't then blame MMT economists if inflation results. One is just not following MMT as a macro theory anymore if one make that decision.

Of course, anyone can take other aspects of the MMT description and try to build another macro theory with knowledge that MMT economists have uniquely contributed. But it won't be Mosler-Wray-Mitchell (in temporal order) MMT macro, as amplified by MMT economists that have followed them in developing MMT as a macro theory.

That is say, the JG is not a normative policy option that is optional along a spectrum of policy options to choose from. It is part of the macro theory as a generalized description that enables prediction. MMT economists are firm in stating that if you want full employment and price stability, this is the only existing theory that shows the way to achieve it in the existing monetary and economic framework. Not that there cannot be others. But as of now, there aren't any.

It is also important to note that the JG is not an independent proposal. There have been JG type programs already, but they are not MMT JG because they have not been implemented as part and parcel of the MMT macro paradigm, which includes monetary theory, SFC macro modeling, Minsky's approach to finance, and Lerner's functional finance, integrated into a coherent and comprehensive macro paradigm.

As the MMT economists have said, if one rejects the JG, then one must either accept a buffer stock of unemployed as a default, or else provide alternative buffering solution to the JG that obviates the buffer stock of unemployed. The MMT economists remind that in accepting a buffer stock of unemployed one is simultaneously accepting significant inefficiency that results in economic underperformance, idle resources, and massive waste over time. This is an externality of the existing system that as costly as any of the other large negative externalities such as environmental pollution and degradation.

So to successfully attack the JG, one would need to show that a buffer of employed is less efficient and effective than a buffer of unemployed even with the enormous waste, or else provide an alternative buffer.

Let me emphasize — This is a macro problem, not a political one, not an ideological one, and not a micro one, which is the way most people on the blogs are addressing in the recent debate. It is claimed to be straight up macro, which requires knowledge of the history of the debate since the days of Classical Economics if one is going to join the debate, let alone advance it.

Finally, it is necessary to point out that some of the criticism of the JG-ELR, as well as other aspects of MMT such as fiscal policy, is based on the view that adopting such an approach undermines "capitalism," e.g., by destroying motivation, enlarging government intervention, and so forth.

Some of these issues are empirical claims that can be assessed through economic data as well as the finding of other branches of science like psychology, sociology, anthropology and evolutionary theory.

However, many of these issues are not decidable empirically. These are ideological issues rather than macroeconomic ones or scientific ones. This is the stuff of philosophy.

Some ideologies reject the very concept of macroeconomics as a valid discipline. So the contentiousness of the issues goes far beyond the JG or any specific aspect of MMT. In this regard the debate becomes a philosophical one rather than an economic one.

18 comments:

Clonal said...

Also, Pavlina Tcherneva - What’s MMT About Anyway and is the Job Guarantee Crucial to the Project?

Quote:

This post is primarily addressed to the MMT community and whoever considers himself/herself a follower of Modern Monetary Theory. It deals with the question of what is in the purview of MMT.

Anonymous said...

Very good Tom. JG is neither left nor right. It is not socialist or capitalist more then fiat money is socialist or capitalist.

SS said...

Why is the JG a better price stabilizer than the minimum wage? MMTers imply that the JG would cause more price stability than the current set-up where there is a minimum wage. But as I understand it, the JG would basically replace the minimum wage. How is this a price stability improvement?

Tom Hickey said...

The minimum wage is a wage offer not a job offer. There may be times at which there are no jobs offered locally at the MW.

The JG is both a wage offer and a job offer. It sets a price at which the government is willing to take all labor willing and able to work at that wage.

Finally, the JG should be set above the subsistence wage. The existing minimum wage is below subsistence in many areas, if not most.

John Carney said...

As I've explained elsewhere, I think your macro solution is undermined by micro and macro and non-strictly economic problems.

See here for instance.
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2012/01/whats-mmt-about-anyway-and-is-job.html#comment-401616584

To make it very short, the JG will not serve as a proper buffer because it will not work. So you need another buffer, which may indeed be less efficient and less effective than a working JG buffer would be.

Matt Franko said...

"the JG will not serve as a proper buffer because it will not work"


Oh... ok.... didnt know that... thanks.

Resp,

Anonymous said...

As I notice John Carney (by the link you provided) that your previous concerns about inflation have now disappeared.

"The burden of proof is on the reformer MMTers to show not just that unemployment can be eliminated and prices stabilized, but that we can be prosperous in this new and untried system."

It has been proven many times in history that government job programs of massive scale don't pose the systemic dangers you are talking about.
As far as your concerns go about It(JG) being too generous, that's all been addressed by Warren in his mandatory readings list.

Anonymous said...

Assume there were a gap. Would you be in favor of a Basic Income Guarantee or job sharing?

Or should we wait until unemployment numbers are equivalent to those in Australia, and thus 'scalable'?

Tom Hickey said...

John, I am promoting your comment at New Economic Perspectives to a post to get comments specific to that on record here.

Anonymous said...

I think that this J.G debate would be better served if MMTers completely avoided the 'where will all the jobs come from' debate. Personally, I view the 'where will all the jobs come from' as completely irrelevant. Maybe some MMTers will argue with the following order:

(1) J.G is necessary and leads to price-stability.

(2) J.G employment does not need to produce productive output.

The objective of the J.G is too keep workers Job-Ready and stimulate demand. This would naturally mean that MMTers show counter-parties why J.G jobs need not be productive. From there this argument is completely avoided.

Why engage in unnecessary battles?

Shaun H

Hugo Heden said...

@SS

There is an attempt to explain that on the MMT Wiki: Inflation Fighting Effect

Senexx said...

This post and Pavlina's are the best two posts out there on the issue at the moment.

Chewitup said...

As Randy mentioned the other day, the fact that JG is even being discussed means MMT has won a major battle. It is finally beyond the esoteric. Even Breitbart had an article for crying out loud. Take what you can get folks. It's beginning to tilt your way. John Carney may not be totally on board, but he's much farther along than almost anyone except maybe Ed R. at Rueters, who has a much smaller audience.

NeilW said...

For me it boils down to a simple issue.

Should people fight for jobs or should jobs fight for people?

And that is resolved by the fairly simple observation that if the price is wrong you can eliminate jobs to balance the market, but you can't eliminate people.

JG is a way of automatically eliminating jobs to balance a market.

The alternative is a system that eliminates people. And it for those advocating that to justify their eliminationism.

Tom Hickey said...

Neil: Should people fight for jobs or should jobs fight for people?

The only reason we have the system we have is that owners are strongly committed to the former to "discipline the labor market" (in their favor).

That was Marx's point in a nutshell, wasn't it?

Letsgetitdone said...

Tom, This is a wonderful summary of the issues and a great discussion too.

Tom Hickey said...

Thanks, Joe. I've enjoyed your recent posts, too.

John Zelnicker said...

Tom -- With your non-economic background, you provide some of the most truly astute perceptions in these debates. I find your observations invaluable in understanding these concepts and their applications. Thank you.